Weekly research notes covering the full spectrum of asset classes

Market Commentary 03/04/2019

April 3, 2019 / Guney Kaya

Stocks:  US stocks were silent. Without any significant change at the end of the day and slow intraday movements. S&P 500 ended the day flat. Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 0.3 percent down. Nasdaq rose 0.3 percent. Future trades show that US stocks are going to start the day positive. Asian stocks had a good day. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.2 percent. Topixx is up 0.6 percent, while the Hang Seng Index is up 1.2 percent. European stocks continue their rally. FTSE 100 started the day rising and the lost its gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7 percent in the morning, Frankfurt’s Dax started the day with even greater gains rising 1.3 percent (11.58 a.m.). 

Bonds: Most of the bond yields are rising, US 10-year Treasury yield advanced four basis points to 2.51 percent. While the yield on two-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 2.33 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield increased five basis points to 0.00 percent. While France’s 10-year yield climbed four basis points.

Currency: MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 0.3 percent. Yen fell by 0.2 percent to 111.52 per dollar. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.1243 the largest gain in two weeks

Commodities: West Texas Intermediate gained 0.4 percent on Tuesday, and extended its gains in the morning with 0.3 percent, trading around $62.76 a barrel. Brent Crude approaching to 70$ a barrel. Gold did not have any major moves, pricing around $1292 an ounce.

*TRY / USD 1 month

The Turkish Lira is extremely volatile with major intraday moves.  Local elections had a drastic impact, increasing the CDS rate to 400’s. Loss of Istanbul to opposition still have not been formally accepted by the government, is increases democratic instability and cause continuing of elections effect on the economy.